President Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Nepal has helped
restore equilibrium to bilateral ties.
Earlier this month, President Pranab Mukherjee concluded a
successful >three-day state visit to Nepal (November 2-4). The last
presidential visit was 18 years ago, by K.R. Narayanan in 1998, and the visit
was long overdue. Mr. Mukherjee is no stranger to Nepal’s politics. For
decades, he has been the ‘go-to person’ for Nepali politicians visiting Delhi.
This added greater political significance to the visit.
The Nepali authorities pulled out all the stops to ensure
that the visit was a success. Mr. Mukherjee’s itinerary included visits to
Janakpur and Pokhara, and civic receptions in both Kathmandu and Janakpur. In
Pokhara, he addressed a large gathering of Gurkha ex-servicemen of the Indian
Army. These public events provided suitable platforms which he used in a
statesmanlike manner to restore a degree of balance in India-Nepal relations
that have been through a turbulent period since Kathmandu’s adoption of the new
constitution in September last year.
A troubled period
From the beginning, it was clear that the Madhesis were
unhappy with the new constitution but at that time, the Pahadi leadership of
the three main parties — Nepali Congress (NC), CPN(UML) and Maoists — were in a
hurry to wrap up the seven-year-long exercise. By the time India reacted, it
was too late and the new constitution was promulgated.
Meanwhile, unrest and agitations gripped the Terai. The
government, headed by the then Prime Minister K.P.S. Oli, made little effort to
engage in a dialogue with the agitating groups. Instead, it blamed India for
imposing an economic ‘blockade’ to pressure the government to accede to Madhesi
demands. Eventually, after harsh rhetoric, both sides pulled back but the
damage was done. An anti-Indian sentiment had been fanned. Mr. Oli’s coalition
collapsed, and he finally resigned in July, once again blaming India for his
ouster.
Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda struck a deal
with the NC to take over as Prime Minister for a period of nine months after
which the Maoists will support NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba as PM for a similar
period till the next elections in January 2018. To his credit, Mr. Prachanda
set about trying to repair relations with India with a successful bilateral
visit in September. In the near future Nepal President Bidhya Devi Bhandari is
expected to visit India. All this should mark a return to normal in the
relationship between the two countries. Yet such was the damage done during Mr.
Oli’s tenure that even during President Mukherjee’s visit, #PranabDaSaySorry
was trending on social media. The Nepal government had declared November 2 a
public holiday amid innuendoes that this was done to keep roads clear and
prevent any embarrassing demonstrations.
A presidential message
During his visit, virtually every Nepali political leader
met President Mukherjee. In public, his message was consistent and unambiguous:
Nepal needs to complete the political transition that began a decade ago when
the Maoists came overground and agreed to join the democratic political
process; and secondly, in order to consolidate the gains of multiparty democracy,
all sections need to be brought on board for the new constitution to succeed.
In addition, he highlighted the historical and
civilisational links between the people of the two countries and linked the
destinies of the two countries by emphasising that they have a “vital stake in
each other’s well-being and security”. He praised the people of Nepal for their
achievement in the quest for peace and stability, describing it as a “historic
undertaking”. In Janakpur, he talked of the spiritual ties among the people by
invoking Ram and Sita but without mentioning either Hinduism or secularism, a
sensitive issue in the new constitution. His visit to Pokhara to address the
ex-servicemen was tribute to the bravery of the 32,000 Gurkhas currently
serving in the Indian Army and the 126,000 pensioners.
Even in Nepal, not many are aware that in addition to the
Nepali Rs.4,000 crore that is now disbursed annually after the OROP
implementation in terms of pensions, India has substantial welfare schemes
covering solar electrification and drinking water supply to ex-servicemen’s
villages, medical care and provision of ambulances to their associations, and
education and scholarships for their children. In Pokhara, he highlighted the
advantages of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship that enables Nepali
citizens to find easy employment in India.
Mr. Mukherjee was not expected to announce any major
projects though the announcements about renovating the ghats along the Bagmati
river just below Pashupatinath temple and the construction of two dharamsalas
adjoining the Janaki Mandir in Janakpur address long-standing Nepali requests.
More significant was that Nepali students will now be eligible to sit for the
entrance examinations for the IITs and the additional scholarships for
postgraduate studies in water resources management and hydel power at IIT,
Roorkee.
Prachanda’s challenges
PM Prachanda has his hands full. A third of his nine-month
tenure is over and the dialogue with the Madhesi groups has not made any
discernible progress. Without forward movement, it will be difficult for him to
have the local body elections during his stint. The issue pertaining to the
number of parliamentary seats from the Terai had been resolved in January by a
constitutional amendment restoring ‘population’ as the key criteria in
delimiting electoral constituencies though the Madhesis have yet to accept
closure on it. Issues pertaining to provincial demarcation, restrictions on
appointment to high-level constitutional positions for naturalised citizens,
status of Hindi and other languages and composition of the upper house are
still pending.
These are contentious and require a degree of political
consensus which is still missing. The NC and the Maoists do not have complete
agreement between themselves yet and neither do the Madhesi groups have a
unified negotiating position. Consequently, the dialogue has been desultory so
far.
Of these, provincial demarcation is possibly the most
complex but if movement is registered on the others, it would create a positive
climate in which to devise a mechanism for the demarcation. The second
difficulty will be to get the two-thirds majority necessary for a
constitutional amendment. For this, the CPN(UML) will need to be brought on
board, and Mr. Oli is not showing any signs of relenting though there are
others who may be more amenable to a compromise.
Mr. Mukherjee’s successful visit, coming after Mr.
Prachanda’s official visit to India in September followed by a second visit to
Goa for the BRICS-BIMSTEC outreach summit, has helped stabilise India-Nepal
relations. This has provided Mr. Prachanda with much-needed political room for
manoeuvre; he now needs to use his considerable negotiating skills to make
progress on the pending constitutional issues during the remaining part of his
short tenure.
Rakesh Sood is a former
diplomat who served as Ambassador to Nepal and is currently a Distinguished
Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, Delhi.
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